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Technical Crypto Indicators 30th April 2024

Crypto Technical indicators



The monthly scale chart of ETHBTC is at a critical support. I don't usually depend on breakout/breakdown signals through diagonal boundaries. Though, a trend line that has several touch points could be valid and recognized by market participants as a level that can change the demand/supply relationship. The trendline and the horizontal support are overlapping around 0.05 levels. Breakdown below 0.05 levels can reverse the existing uptrend and can result in a massive underperformance for ETH vs BTC. Possible price target for the rectangle stands at 0.029 levels. Given that this is a monthly scale price chart, I will monitor it for an end of month close below 0.05 levels. An ideal breakdown signal should come with  a long black candle. A sharp recovery from current support area can result in continuation of the wide trading range between 0.05 and 0.08 levels.

ETHUSD cleared the upper boundary of the possible rising wedge, held the support level and resumed higher with long back to back white candles towards the next resistance at 4,400 levels. Recent pullback found support above 2,800 levels. Uptrend can resume.  

EthBTC trading chart


BTCUSD is consolidating earlier gains below the strong resistance area between 65K - 68K. Breakout above the upper boundary of a rising trend channel started a runaway price movement towards the resistance area. This week's price action is resuming the sideways consolidation. This can be a preparation for a breakout to all-time highs.

BTCUSD has encountered a formidable resistance zone between $65,000 and $68,000, where the upper boundary has notably acted as a barrier, as acknowledged by market participants. The prevailing uptrend remains intact. Typically, a breakout above the upper boundary of a rising trend channel heralds a robust uptrend. Currently, a brief consolidation just below the resistance area of $65,000 to $68,000 and above the trend channel's upper boundary at $58,500 is a positive sign, indicating a likely impending breakout to new all-time highs. The price has successfully maintained its recent gains, which I interpret as a setup for a potential move higher. The minor high is currently at $73,700. A weekly close above this level would confirm the breakout to new all-time highs and indicate a continuation of the uptrend. Meanwhile, the minor low at $60,000 has so far served as short-term support. Continued consolidation between $60,000 and $73,700 could develop into a potential rectangle chart pattern. However, failing to sustain above the upper boundary of the trend channel could trigger a more extensive correction.

BTCUSD trading chart

Exploring Bitcoin's Historical "Danger Zones"

Bitcoin's Pre-Halving "Danger Zone" (Orange): Historically, the period 14-28 days before a Bitcoin halving has seen significant price retractions. For example, around 30 days prior to the halving, Bitcoin underwent an 18% drop. This pattern was also evident in previous cycles, including 2016, when the retracement started 28 days before the halving. The recent cycle in 2024 followed a similar trend, starting its retraction exactly 30 days before the halving, closely mirroring the 2016 scenario.

Potential Post-Halving "Danger Zone" (Purple): Moving beyond the halving, it's interesting to consider the potential for a post-halving downturn. In 2016, Bitcoin experienced an 11% drop about 21 days after the halving before reversing to an upward trend. Currently, we are 11 days post-halving, and if the past is any indicator, the next 10 days could form a critical "Danger Zone". Historical data from 2016 suggests potential volatility around the $60,600 Re-Accumulation Range Low, signaling a key area to watch in the coming days.

BTCUSD Chart 2016 Vs 2024 post halving

Disclaimer: The content provided in this article and website is for educational purposes only and is not intended as financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile and risky. There is a potential for significant loss, up to and including the total loss of your investment. Readers are advised to conduct their own research and consider consulting with an independent financial advisor before engaging in any financial transactions based on this information. Neither the author nor this platform assumes liability for financial losses that could occur as a result of using this information

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